Category Archives: Washington Redskins

Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football Preview

History can be made to close Week 5 of the NFL season when the Redskins visit the Saints in a showdown of NFC division leaders on Monday Night Football. Saints quarterback Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards to become the NFL’s all-time leader, a record currently held by Peyton Manning with 71,940 yards. Brees comes into this game third on the all-time list and he needs just 99 yards to pass Brett Favre en route to Manning.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins claimed first place in the NFC East while enjoying their bye week and they’re looking for back-to-back victories following a 31-17 Week 3 win over the Packers on September 23. The Redskins got pressure on Aaron Rodgers for most of the game, sacking him four times, led by two from defensive end Jonathan Allen.

Alex Smith completed 12 of 20 passes for 220 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, adding 20 yards on the ground on seven carries, veteran running back Adrian Peterson had a strong game with 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries and tight ends Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed combined to make six catches for 135 yards.

The Redskins are averaging 245.3 passing yards (18th in the NFL) and 137.7 rushing yards (5th). Washington ranks 23rd with 21.3 points per game and 2nd with 14.7 points against. Alex Smith has passed for 767 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, Adrian Peterson has 236 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 56 carries and Jordan Reed has 14 receptions for 168 yards and one touchdown. Mason Foster has 27 tackles and Matt Ioannidis has three sacks.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints bounced back from their 48-40 Week 1 loss against the Buccaneers with three straight wins, including last Sunday’s 33-18 road victory over the Giants. Drew Brees was the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season after Dan Marino, he’s one of only five signal-callers to reach that milestone and the only one to do so in multiple seasons with five.

At 39 years old Brees has shown no signs of slowing down, although his numbers against the Giants were not that impressive by his standards. Brees completed 18 of 32 passes for a season-low 217 yards and no touchdowns, ending a 10-game streak with at least one but he was still effective enough with Alvin Kamara‘s help to lead the Saints on three second-half touchdown drives. Kamara finished with career-highs of 134 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

The Saints are averaging 313.8 passing yards (7th in the NFL) and 104.5 rushing yards (18th). New Orleans ranks 3rd with 34.3 points per game and 29th with 30.3 points against. Drew Brees has passed for 1295 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions, Alvin Kamara has 275 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 56 carries and Michael Thomas has 42 receptions for 445 yards and three touchdowns. Demario Davis has 37 tackles and Cameron Jordan has four sacks.

NFL Trends:

The Washington Redskins are:

4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game

6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record

9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record

6-0 ATS in their last six meetings

4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints are:

1-4 ATS in their last five home games

1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win

2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 5

1-5 ATS in their last six Monday games

The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams and the Redskins have a much-improved defense with a strong defensive line led by Jonathan Allen that can generate enough pressure on Drew Brees. Alex Smith always takes care of the football and although he may not have a cannon like Patrick Mahomes, he keeps defenses alert while exploiting mismatches in the middle of the field. Brees will break the all-time record for passing yards but the Redskins will cover the spread.

NFL Pick: Redskins +6.5 (-110)

Odds via Jazz Sports

Jake Walker runs OddsandNews.com. You can follow him on Twitter (@Walker_J23)

Redskins Odds & Ends: Offense, Win Totals, Projections

Alex Smith takes over a team that won 7 games last season and he’ll need all of the team’s offensive weapons to remain healthy to improve on last year’s win total.

The team looked flat in their dress rehearsal against the Broncos over the weekend. However, they were without three big contributors in Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed. Thompson, who suffered a broken leg last season, appears to ready to go.

“Chris looks fantastic,” Gruden said, via ESPN.com. “He’s been great — his pass blocking and obviously his routes, and he’s hitting the hole. He looks great. He’s ready to go. Jordan is getting there. The more he works and more he runs … he had a great day today, just getting in and out of his cuts, getting a feel with [quarterback Alex Smith] and the different formations. He’s on pace to be ready.”

All three players are expected to be ready for week 1.

Washington Redskins Bally’s AC Bovada
Win Total 7 7
Over -120 -110
Under -110 -120

Here’s a look at our projections for Washington:

  • Win projection: 7.3 (Average on simulations)
  • Postseason Odds: 31.2%
  • Super Bowl Odds: 2.7%

Seven of Washington’s opponents this season made the playoffs in 2017. They start out in Arizona before getting the Colts in their home opener.

Without much depth in the secondary, matchups against Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton could get ugly, especially if Smith is forced to play from behind. Add in tilts with the Falcons and Texans as well as two with the Eagles and it’s difficult to imagine Washington having enough firepower to reach eight wins if their skill players are forced to miss time.

Preseason Week 3 Notes: Broncos, Peterson, Lions, Giants

The Broncos paid Case Keenum starter money to come in and create stability at the position and he looked exactly like the player they wanted during a half of work on Friday against the Redskins. He completed 12-of-18 passes for 148 yards, leading Denver to three scoring drives.

Keenum clearly has a favorite receiver, targeting Emmanuel Sanders eight times during the contest. Here is his target breakdown from the game:

Sanders caught four of the targets for 61 yards and he added a rushing touchdown. Thomas is going higher in drafts, but Sanders is the guy to own and provides tremendous value with an ESPN ADP OF 67, though he’s likely to rise over the next week.

Here’s more from the Broncos as well as other teams who took the field on Friday night:

  • Courtland Sutton looked the part of a pro, hauling in all three of his targets for 45 yards. He needs to be drafted for the upside.
  • Adrian Peterson looked spry during a half of action for the Redskins. This is now his job to lose and he should be taken in the 7th round in the Rex BurkheadIsaiah CrowellDuke Johnson Jr. range.
  • The Lions‘ offense struggled yet again with Matt Stafford completing 9-of-18 passes for 113 yards. His receivers dropped a few balls and no pass-catcher came away from the game with a good performance. Kenny Golladay and Golden Tate each had four targets, most on the team.
  • Evan Engram picked up where he left off last season, catching three of four targets before suffering a concussion.
  • Eli Manning had no Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley to use, but he looked adequate, completing 17-of-23 for 188 yards. Sterling Shepard had 8 of those targets and while he’ll get less attention during the regular season with the stars back, I’d rather him over players like Jordy Nelson and Jamison Crowder among others.

Parsing Through Matthew Berry’s Final Love/Hate

ESPN’s Matthew Berry believes that Patrick Mahomes could be this season’s Carson Wentz, a second-year QB that finds fantasy football stardom. Berry cites Mahomes ability to run with the ball (he had double-digit rushing scores in each of his final two college seasons) and Andy Reid’s system as reasons for optimism.

Over the last 10 years, Reid’s QBs have scored 2755.4 fantasy points (ESPN scoring) which would be the fifth most out of all NFL team had Reid been his own squad. Yes, there’s chatter of Mahomes making too many mistakes for the Chiefs and surely he won’t be as risk-adverse as Alex Smith. However, 19 QBs are going ahead of him on average in ESPN drafts and with this kind of upside, its difficult to find that the risk is not worth the potential reward.

Berry’s final Love/Hate column is worth a read. The longtime ESPN scribe is shifting his work more to TV and podcasting and it’ll be sad not to read this column on a weekly basis. Make sure you check out his last one and if you can’t read the whole thing, we’ve got you covered with some of Berry’s fantasy analysis below:

  • In three of the past four seasons, Redskins coach Jay Gruden has been top-12 in passing percentage and Alex Smith comes to town with at least 15 fantasy points in over 60% of his fantasy starts. That’s more than Russell Wilson (59.4%), Philip Rivers (59.4%) and Cam Newton (51.6%) among other, as Berry notes.
  • Be cautious of starting Ben Roethlisberger on the road. The Steelers QB is averaging 23.26 fantasy points in Pittsburg vs. 13.97 fantasy points on the road over the past four seasons.
  • Josh McCown, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are among the QBs who had more games with multiple TD passes than Derek Carr last season, Berry adds.
  • Saquon Barkley should be a great fit for Pat Shurmur’s fantasy-friendly offense. As Berry points out, while Shurmur was in Minnesota and Philly, his offenses ranked in the top six in red zone rush percentage.
  • Berry is high on Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper, citing how Jon Gruden has had at least one 1,000-yard receiver in each of the 11 years he’s been a head coach.
  • Some of Marvin Jones Jr.’s production appears to be tied to the health of Kenny Golliday. In the five games last season that Golladay was out, Jones averaged 10.2 targets. But in the 11 games, Golladay played, Jones averaged just 5.1 targets.