Le’Veon Bell Can Hold Out Until Week 10 Without Losing Free Agency Status

The Steelers and Le’Veon Bell are at a standstill and a resolution may not come very soon. According to the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, the window for Bell to report and still be eligible for free agency next offseason is by 4:00 p.m. Tuesday after week 10.

Bell was a consensus top 2 pick in most fantasy drafts, though with the risk of a long holdout factored in, his ADP should drop for those fantasy players who have yet to draft yet. Here is the list of players we would take ahead of him in non-ppr leagues if we were drafting today:

  • Todd Gurley
  • David Johnson
  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Leonard Fournette
  • Antonio Brown
  • DeAndre Hopkins

Kareem Hunt is another player who could be taken ahead of Bell and there would be no qualms here at Bettors Digest if you decided to take Andy Reid’s top back over Bell’s situation.

It’s worth noting that just because Bell could hold out through week 10 doesn’t mean he is expected to. Bell and the Steelers could come to an agreement tomorrow and he’d be right back in the top-2 conversation in fantasy leagues. Still, there’s risk here.

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Fair Prices For Buying/Selling Points: NFL Spreads

Bettors have the option to buy or sell points off of a spread. (a half-point in the betting spread is called a hook).

Most sportsbooks move the handle by 10 for every half-point a consumer wants to move it. In some cases, like when the football spread is -7, consumers get better than “fair” odds (what the math tells you that you should get) when adjusting the spread. Other times, buying points puts consumers at a disadvantage, like when the spread is-14.

You can find the fair odds for football games at every spread below.

SPREAD

SELL 1.5

SELL 1.0

SELL 0.5

BUY 0.5

BUY 1.0

BUY 1.5

-14 117 114 111 -111 -116 -121
-13.5 127 123 112 -105 -109 -111
-13 129 117 105 -105 -106 -108
-12.5 122 109 105 -102 -103 -110
-12 111 106 102 -102 -108 -114
-11.5 108 103 102 -106 -112 -123
-11 109 108 106 -106 -116 -125
-10.5 114 112 106 -109 -118 -121
-10 122 116 109 -109 -111 -113
-9.5 126 118 109 -102 -104 -108
-9 120 111 102 -102 -106 -111
-8.5 113 104 102 -104 -109 -122
-8 108 106 104 -104 -116 -128
-7.5 111 109 104 -111 -123 -133
-7 121 116 111 -111 -119 -127
-6.5 129 123 111 -107 -114 -118
-6 131 120 107 -107 -110 -113
-5.5 128 114 107 -103 -106 -114
-5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
-4.5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -141
-4 113 110 107 -107 -131 -154
-3.5 118 114 107 -122 -144 -151
-3 137 129 120 -120 -125 -130
-2.5 156 144 122 -104 -108 -114
-2 150 127 104 -104 -109 -114
-1.5 133 108 104 -105 -109 -110
-1 113 109 105 -105 -105 -105
0 110 105

EV

EV

-105 -110
1 105 105 105 -105 -109 -113
1.5 110 109 105 -104 -108 -133
2 114 109 104 -104 -127 -150
2.5 114 108 104 -122 -144 -156
3 130 125 120 -120 -129 -137
3.5 151 144 122 -107 -114 -118
4 154 131 107 -107 -110 -113
4.5 141 114 107 -103 -106 -114
5 117 110 103 -103 -110 -117
5.5 114 106 103 -107 -114 -128
6 113 110 107 -107 -120 -131
6.5 118 114 107 -111 -123 -129
7 127 119 111 -111 -116 -121
7.5 133 123 111 -104 -109 -111
8 128 116 104 -104 -106 -108
8.5 122 109 104 -102 -104 -113
9 111 106 102 -102 -111 -120
9.5 108 104 102 -109 -118 -126
10 113 111 109 -109 -116 -122
10.5 121 118 109 -106 -112 -114
11 125 116 106 -106 -108 -109
11.5 123 112 106 -102 -103 -108
12 114 108 102 -102 -106 -111
12.5 110 103 102 -105 -109 -122
13 108 106 105 -105 -117 -129
13.5 111 109 105 -112 -123 -127
14 121 116 111 -111 -114 -117

Wizards of Odds was used in the making of this post.

The First 2018/19 NBA Season Win Totals

The first 2018/19 NBA Win Totals are available. Here are the numbers (chart via The Action Network):

Team BetOnline Westgate
Golden State Warriors 65.5 62.5
Boston Celtics 58.5 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers 53.5 54.5
Houston Rockets 57.5 54.5
Los Angeles Lakers 50.5 48.5
Toronto Raptors 52.5 54.5
Washington Wizards 44.5 44.5
San Antonio Spurs 44.5 43.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 47.5 50.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 44.5 44.5
Utah Jazz 47.5 48.5
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 41.5
Denver Nuggets 45.5 47.5
New Orleans Pelicans 42.5 45.5
Miami Heat 40.5 41.5
Milwaukee Bucks 45.5 46.5
Indiana Pacers 45.5 47.5
New York Knicks 32.5 29.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 31.5 30.5
Los Angeles Clippers 40.5 35.5
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 35.5
Detroit Pistons 40.5 37.5
Phoenix Suns 27.5 28.5
Dallas Mavericks 34.5 34.5
Orlando Magic 30.5 31.5
Chicago Bulls 28.5 27.5
Memphis Grizzlies 31.5 34.5
Sacramento Kings 27.5 25.5
Atlanta Hawks 26.5 23.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 32.5

 

Chiefs New QB Throws Seven INTs in Six Practices

Patrick Mahomes is still learning his craft. The Chiefs brought him in and traded Alex Smith away in part because of his high ceiling, but we’re seeing early in training camp that his floor is much lower than his predecessor.

“He had a few hiccups today,” offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said (via ESPN). “But that’s a part of the process. When you’re young you need those hiccups because they become valuable lessons. … Would we like for him to be perfect? Yes. We’d like for him to have the highest quarterback rating ever. … He just needs to be poised under pressure.”

We shouldn’t make too much of training camp interceptions, but it’s a reminder that Mahomes will be more volatile than the man he’s replacing. The Chiefs are expected to take a slight step back this season and if Mahomes can’t protect the ball, the team won’t be able to overcompensate for its lackluster defense.

Kansas City Chiefs William Hill @ Oceans AC Bovada
Win Total 8 8.5
Over -160 -120
Under +140 -110

Smith, who spent the last five seasons as Kansas City’s starter, threw just five interceptions during the 2017 season and just 33 over his 75 starts with the club. His ability to avoid turnover keep his offense on the field and the team’s defense off of it.

Sportsbook Takes Two Bets On Nick Young To Win The NBA Finals MVP

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has taken two bets on Nick Young, according to ESPN’s Ben Fawles. The odds: 5000-1.

Young made the playoffs for only the third time in his 12 year career this year and he hasn’t played exceptionally well this time around.

The shooting guard is sporting a 5.5 player efficiency rating over the 16 games (two starts) in which it took the Warriors to reach the NBA Finals. He scored just 2.9 points per game while making 35.0% of his shots from the field.

It would take an incredible sequence of events for this bet to pay off, but dreamers gonna dream…