NFL Week 2: Jets-Dolphins Betting Notes

The Jets pulled off an impressive upset over the Lions in week 1, fueled by the debut of Sam Darnold and a defense that produced four interceptions, including one that went for a touchdown. It was a great start by Todd Bowles and company, though, under his reign, the Jets haven’t been successful after an upset win, going 2-6 straight up the following week. His teams have also gone 2-6 against the spread.

New York’s game against Miami began as a pick’em, though bettors have moved the line to as high as Jets -3. As of this writing, 54% of the bets are on New York.

The Dolphins defense gave the Titans fits in week 1 and they should give the Jets a hard time on Sunday. Detroit couldn’t get pressure on Darnold, allowing him to make clean throw after clean throw. The rookie will have no such luxury at MetLife Stadium this week.

Ryan Tannehill looked sharp as a game manager in week 1, making safe decisions on the majority of his throws. He had a 75-yarder to Kenny Stills that showed what he is capable of. He also had a red zone interception in the first half that made Dolphin-bettors cringe. He’s played at Metlife on four occasions, winning three of them.


Six Fantasy Football Facts To Help Your Draft

Check out Tuesday’s six pack of NFL stats to help you dominate your fantasy football draft:

  1. Davante Adams has never surpassed 1,000 yards during a season in his career, though it’s he’s a good bet to reach that milestone this season. Aaron Rodgers has produced 10 1,000 yard receivers and with Adams being the top target (he saw 19.3% of Rodgers throws last year, most on the team), he’ll likely be the 11th.
  2. Alex Collins is a guy I’m targeting in both .5 ppr and standard scoring drafts. He was RB8 in standard scoring from weeks 8-17 and had six top-15 finishes during that stretch.
  3. Golden Tate has finished 24th or better during every campaign in Detroit and he’s an underrated target in standard scoring. He earned WR3 numbers or better is 61.5% of his starts (better than Adam Theilen, who’s going in the third/fourth round). Tate will also face the 13th easiest schedule for opposing WR. Pair Tate with a guy like Tyreke Hill if you’re going RB-RB with your first two picks.
  4. Emmanuel Sanders is an underrated asset in fantasy. He’s got the attention of new QB Case Keenum and he’s got a favorable playoff schedule with the Broncos facing the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders in weeks 14-16.
  5. The 49ers are facing the 12th easiest schedule for WRs and Pierre Garcon is a player getting overlooked. Garcon was on pace for 134 targets, 80 catches and over 1,000 receiving yards prior to his injury. And that was without Jimmy GQ. He’s currently the 37th WR taken in Yahoo! leagues and he provides incredible value late in the draft.
  6. Robbie Anderson gets all the fantasy football attention out of the Jets‘ WR corps, but I’d rather take a flyer on Jermaine Kearse with a full offseason in New York under his belt than select Anderson at his 9th round price. Factor in Anderson’s potential suspension and Kearse, who can be had during the last couple rounds of the draft, will be the easy choice at the position if I’m looking for a WR from the Jets. It’s worth noting that I’m not too worried about Kearse’s abdominal injury, as the risk with drafting him late is extremely low.

Teams With No Chance To Win Super Bowl 53

It’s hard to say “there’s no chance” when it comes to sports, specifically the NFL where year-to-year parity reigns. The Action Network went through 10,000 simulations to find each teams chances at making the Super Bowl and winning it.

According to the site’s simulations, the following teams have a less than 0.1% (or nearly zero) chance at holding the Lombardi Trophy:

Oakland Raiders

  • Over/Under Win Total: 8
  • Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Chicago Bears

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Buffalo Bills

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Over/Under Win Total: 8
  • Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

Arizona Cardinals

  • Over/Under Win Total: 5.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Miami Dolphins

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

New York Jets

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1


Odds via Bovada. Photo Courtesy of Corey Coleman’s Instagram (@CoreyColeman).

AFC Odds & Ends: Win Totals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cincy Defense

The Chiefs‘ defense isn’t stopping John Ewing of The Action Network from taking the team’s over at an 8.5 win total. The network’s simulations have Kansas City winning at least 9 games 70.7% of the time.

Kansas City Chiefs William Hill @ Oceans AC Bovada
Win Total 8 8.5
Over -160 -120
Under 140 -110

The transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes certainly makes this a riskier bet, as we have a limited sample size on Mahomes in pro action. Another risk is the defense, one that ranked 30th in DVOA last season. Eric Berry will return from a torn Achilles and he’s a difference-maker that can help this unit rank in the top half of the if he’s healthy.

Here are more items to help you make money this football season:

  • The Action Network has the Dolphins going under 6.5 wins in 74.9% of their simulations, Ewing adds in the same piece. Those who are pro-Ryan Tannehill may point to his 8-5 record during the 2016 season where he completed 67.1% of his passes, but it may be best to dismiss those chants. That year, Jarvis Landry, who is now in Cleveland, had 27.5% of the team’s passes come his way. Tannehill will now have Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson to throw to in the slot and it’s hard to feel confident about this offense.
  • DeVante Parker has struggled so far in training camp, writes Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. The Dolphins WR currently has an ADP of 90 in ESPN leagues, sandwiched between Robbie Anderson and Kelvin Benjamin.
  • The Bengals produced only 14 turnovers last season, but they are one of only two teams to rank in the top 10 in pressure rate in each of the last three seasons, according to Football Outsiders’ Almanac. They averaged 24 turnovers over the previous two seasons prior to 2017. Expect this unit to get to opposing QBs and cause more errors.
  • Sam Darnold could get on the field sooner than later, Rich Cimini of speculates. The scribe adds that when the Jets feel he is ready, he will play and he’ll have a chance to prove himself in the preseason. Regardless of who is under center for NY, it’s best to leave this situation along from a fantasy standpoint.