Category Archives: New England Patriots

Tom Brady Likely To Break Streak For Most Games Favored In A Row During 2018

Tom Brady will take the field against the Texans as the favorite for the 50th straight game in week 1. The last time he and the Patriots were underdogs heading into a contest was week 2 of 2015 against the Bills in a game where New England was +2. The Patriots ended up winning 40-32.

Over the last 50 games, including the playoffs, Brady is 40-10 overall, beating opponents by an average of 10.7 points per game, as Evan Abrams The Action Network relays. He’s thrown 107 passing touchdowns and only 22 interceptions during that streak.

Brady has gone 32-16-2 against the spread, covering the line by 2.4 points per game. If a bettor would have wagered $100 on each of his games, they would have made $1,563.

Only three teams have beat Brady twice during the streak: the Dolphins, Eagles, and Broncos. In fact, as Abrams notes, the NFC East is the only division to bettors have been able to make money wagering against Brady.

Kurt Warner holds the longest streak of being favored with 55 starts and Brady should break that this season, as he’s projected to be favored in every game leading up to the Pats week 15 matchup.

How NFL Preseason Favorites Have Performed

The Patriots enter the season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl for the third straight year. Last year, bookmakers gave them a 2.5-1 odds, the heaviest favorite since Tom Brady‘s 2007 squad that ultimately went 18-1.

NE Patriots Caesars Entertainment (AC) Delaware Park Bovada
SB Odds +700 +700 +650

Only two preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl have gone on to actually win the big game (06 Colts at +600; 16 Patriots +650). The favorites haven’t faired that poorly, as Greg Gulielmo of FiveThirtyEight notes. Just four of the teams since 2001 missed the playoffs and nine of the favorite/co-favorite the Super Bowl, with seven of the teams losing in the game.

Year Team Odds (+) Implied probability Actual Wins Results
2018 New England 650 13%
2017 New England 250 29% 13 Lost SB
2016 New England 650 13% 14 Won SB
2015 Green Bay 500 17% 10 Lost Div
Seattle 500 17% 10 Lost Div
2014 Seattle 500 17% 12 Lost SB
Denver 500 17% 12 Lost Div
2013 Denver 650 13% 13 Lost SB
San Francisco 650 13% 12 Lost Conf
2012 Green Bay 600 14% 11 Lost Div
2011 New England 600 14% 13 Lost SB
2010 Indianapolis 800 11% 10 Lost WC
2009 New England 500 17% 10 Lost WC
2008 New England 350 22% 11 Missed
2007 New England 250 29% 16 Lost SB
2006 Indianapolis 600 14% 12 Won SB
2005 Indianapolis 500 17% 14 Lost Div
New England 500 17% 10 Lost Div
Philadelphia 500 17% 6 Missed
2004 Philadelphia 500 17% 13 Lost SB
2003 Tampa Bay 800 11% 7 Missed
2002 St. Louis 350 22% 7 Missed
2001 St. Louis 400 20% 14 Lost SB

*Chart has been updated to include New England’s most recent odds

Patriots Have No Interest In Dez Bryant. Should Fantasy Owners?

The Patriots let Kenny Britt go and the move left some to speculate that they would pick up another receiver. With Dez Bryant still available, it’s easy to try and connect the two dots.

Michael Giardi of the NFL Network asked a team source if New England was interested in the WR. The response: Probably no.

Fantasy owners should probably leave Dez on the waiver wire right now as well. He’s used to playing on one side (the right one) and if he does sign with a new team, there’s no guarantee he’ll have that role. As he ages, his best spot might be in the slot, playing similarly to how Anquan Bolden played during the latter half of his career.

I’d bet a new team explores using him this way and it will take reps and practice time to get him up to speed. The probability of him being a fantasy factor goes down every day that he isn’t getting the practice reps.

AFC Target Notes: Ravens, Patriots, Bengals

Each team in the NFL has two preseason games in the books. Let’s take a look at how some of the quarterbacks from the AFC have fared and which pass-catchers they have thrown to.

Quoth The Raven…Disappoint Nevermore

Joe Flacco went 7-for-9 with 72-yards and a touchdown against the Colts on Monday. He looks rejuvenated this preseason and we could see a season akin to what the Chiefs saw with Alex Smith last season.

It also helps that Baltimore got him some new targets, bringing in Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Sneed in addition to drafting a pair of tight ends. Flacco has thrown to the end zone twice this preseason with one target going to Crabtree and one going to Brown. Here are all of his targets through two appearances:

  • Michael Crabtree: 4
  • Buck Allen: 3
  • John Brown: 3
  • Kenneth Dixon: 2
  • Nick Boyle: 1
  • Willie Snead: 1
  • Hayden Hurst: 1
  • Patrick Ricard: 1
Brady’s Bunch

Moving up the coast to Foxborough, Tom Brady threw the ball 26 times in his first action of the season. He gained 172 yards on 19 completions while tossing a pair of TDs. Here’s his target breakdown:

  • Chris Hogan: 6
  • James White: 6
  • Julian Edelman: 4
  • Phillip Dorsett: 3
  • Cordarrelle Patterson: 2
  • Will Tye: 2
  • Jacob Hollister: 1

Brady appears to already be in midseason form and Hogan has an opportunity to dominate during the first four weeks of the season with Edelman serving a suspension. Hogan caught five of his six targets for 25 yards and a touchdown. He dropped the other target, which would have been a 20-yard gain.

Red Rifling

Andy Dalton has gone 11-for-19 for 144 yards this preseason, mixing in impressive drives with lackluster ones. A.J. Green is still a favorite of Andy’s catching three of his five targets. One of the incompletion was a widely overthrown ball. The other was also a misfire. Here are Dalton’s targets so far this preseason:

  • A.J. Green: 5
  • John Ross: 3
  • Tyler Boyd: 2
  • Joe Mixon: 2
  • Josh Malone: 1
  • Tyler Kroft: 1
  • C.J. Uzomah: 1
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