Tom Brady will try to improve his 28-3 career record against the Buffalo Bills when the New England Patriots travel to New Era Field on Monday Night Football.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots made everyone forget their 1-2 start by winning their last four games, including a hard-fought 38-31 road victory against the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Tom Brady completed 25 of 36 passes for 277 yards, three touchdowns and one interception to help rally the Patriots from an early 10-point deficit and their special teams had two touchdowns via a blocked punt by Kyle Van Noy and a kickoff return by Cordarrelle Patterson.
The New England defense preserved the win in dramatic fashion, allowing a Hail Mary completion from Mitch Trubisky to Kevin White before tackling him one yard shy of the goal line. Rookie running back Sony Michel left the game in the first half after twisting his left knee but an MRI revealed no structural damage he’s listed as day-to-day. James White and Kenjon Barner stepped up on the running game, combining for 76 rushing yards on 21 carries and Josh Gordon caught four passes for 100 receiving yards.
The Patriots are averaging 260.3 passing yards (14th in the NFL) and 120.9 rushing yards (14th). New England ranks 4th with 30.6 points per game and 19th with 25.6 points against. Tom Brady has passed for 1,876 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions, Sony Michel has 422 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 95 carries and Rob Gronkowski has 26 receptions for 405 yards and one touchdown. Devin McCourty has 41 tackles and Deatrich Wise Jr. has 3.5 sacks.
The quarterback situation for the Buffalo Bills has become a mess and they were completely manhandled on Sunday’s 37-5 road loss against the Indianapolis Colts. Derek Anderson became the team’s third different player to start at quarterback this season after a 12-day stretch in which he signed a contract and took over the starting job because head coach Sean McDermott doesn’t trust Nathan Peterman to replace injured rookie Josh Allen.
The results were as expected, Derek Anderson had just 12 days to learn the playbook and he lost star running back LeSean McCoy during the game. Anderson completed 20 of 31 passes for 175 yards, no touchdowns, four turnovers (three interceptions) and he was sacked twice. The Bills totaled 175 of their 303 total yards in the second half, when the outcome of the game was already decided and they failed to score a touchdown for the third time in seven games.
Derek Anderson will start under center once again while Josh Allen continues to recover from a sprained ligament in his throwing elbow and running back LeSean McCoy is in concussion protocol, so his status for this game is still up in the air.
The Bills are averaging 129.4 passing yards (32nd in the NFL) and 104.6 rushing yards (19th). Buffalo ranks 32nd with 11.3 points per game and 16th with 25.0 points against. Derek Anderson has passed for 175 yards and three interceptions, LeSean McCoy has 244 rushing yards on 63 carries and Zay Jones has 19 receptions for 226 yards and one touchdown. Tremaine Edmunds has 54 tackles and Jerry Hughes has 4.5 sacks.
The Under is:
8-3 in New England’s last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
5-2 in New England’s last seven road games
9-4 in New England’s last 13 games against a team with a losing record
5-0 in Buffalo’s last five games overall
4-0 in Buffalo’s last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
6-1 in Buffalo’s last seven games following a straight up loss
5-1 in Buffalo’s last six games following an ATS loss
4-1 in Buffalo’s last five games a team with a winning record
New England has scored 38 or more points in four straight games but I just can’t trust this weak Buffalo offense to put up enough points to make this a high-scoring contest. This game could get out of control quickly, so the Patriots might be content with scoring just enough to secure the win and rest their starters.
NFL Pick: Under 44 (-110)Odds via Jazz Sports
Jake Walker runs OddsandNews.com. You can follow him on Twitter (@Walker_J23)