Author Archives: Dallas J. Carter

Teams With No Chance To Win Super Bowl 53

It’s hard to say “there’s no chance” when it comes to sports, specifically the NFL where year-to-year parity reigns. The Action Network went through 10,000 simulations to find each teams chances at making the Super Bowl and winning it.

According to the site’s simulations, the following teams have a less than 0.1% (or nearly zero) chance at holding the Lombardi Trophy:

Oakland Raiders

  • Over/Under Win Total: 8
  • Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Chicago Bears

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Buffalo Bills

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Over/Under Win Total: 8
  • Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

Arizona Cardinals

  • Over/Under Win Total: 5.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Miami Dolphins

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

New York Jets

  • Over/Under Win Total: 6
  • Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

 

Odds via Bovada. Photo Courtesy of Corey Coleman’s Instagram (@CoreyColeman).

Broncos Round Up: Chubb, Lynch, Kelly, Thomas

Bradley Chubb didn’t impress in the run game during his 15 plays in the first preseason game. His biggest weakness is shedding blockers as running lanes are opening up. On a few occasions, Chubb appeared to be unaware of where an opposing rusher was in the backfield as the play was developing.

The Broncos struggled as a team with stopping the run, so this isn’t only a Chubb problem. The rookie will be able to contribute immediately in pass rush situations, but the team is expecting him to be more than a situational pass-rusher once the regular season begins. While it was only one preseason game, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Denver Broncos William Hill  (AC) Bovada Bet Online
Win Total 7.5 7 7.5
Over -110 -170 +115
Under -110 +140 -135

Here are more news and notes out of Denver:

  • Former first-round pick Paxton Lynch has been demoted to third-string, Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today reports. Lynch had a horrible first preseason game, throwing for just 24 yards on 6-of-11 passing. Lynch also tossed an interception.
  • Chad Kelly, who completed 66% of his 21 passes for 177 yards in the team’s first preseason game, will take over as the backup QB.
  • Denver’s offensive line allowed 52 sacks last season and the team brought in Jared Veldheer to solidify the right tackle situation. Veldheer struggled at times last year in Arizona, but he became more inconsistent as the season progressed.
  • Demaryius Thomas has finished 16th or better in PPR leagues in each of the past six seasons. With Case Keenum in the fold, we should be able to expect him to make it a seventh straight year with that distinction.

Latest On Jerick McKinnon, 49ers’ Injuries

Jerick McKinnon has a muscle strain and there’s no timetable for when he’ll be back in the lineup. Prior to the injury, there was talk of him not being the “bell-cow” back in the offense. If that ends up being the case, McKinnon may be going too high in fantasy drafts. His average ADP is within the top 30 on ESPN.

For more on the 49ers, check out the Locked On 49ers podcast:

 

 

 

AFC Odds & Ends: Win Totals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cincy Defense

The Chiefs‘ defense isn’t stopping John Ewing of The Action Network from taking the team’s over at an 8.5 win total. The network’s simulations have Kansas City winning at least 9 games 70.7% of the time.

Kansas City Chiefs William Hill @ Oceans AC Bovada
Win Total 8 8.5
Over -160 -120
Under 140 -110

The transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes certainly makes this a riskier bet, as we have a limited sample size on Mahomes in pro action. Another risk is the defense, one that ranked 30th in DVOA last season. Eric Berry will return from a torn Achilles and he’s a difference-maker that can help this unit rank in the top half of the if he’s healthy.

Here are more items to help you make money this football season:

  • The Action Network has the Dolphins going under 6.5 wins in 74.9% of their simulations, Ewing adds in the same piece. Those who are pro-Ryan Tannehill may point to his 8-5 record during the 2016 season where he completed 67.1% of his passes, but it may be best to dismiss those chants. That year, Jarvis Landry, who is now in Cleveland, had 27.5% of the team’s passes come his way. Tannehill will now have Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson to throw to in the slot and it’s hard to feel confident about this offense.
  • DeVante Parker has struggled so far in training camp, writes Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. The Dolphins WR currently has an ADP of 90 in ESPN leagues, sandwiched between Robbie Anderson and Kelvin Benjamin.
  • The Bengals produced only 14 turnovers last season, but they are one of only two teams to rank in the top 10 in pressure rate in each of the last three seasons, according to Football Outsiders’ Almanac. They averaged 24 turnovers over the previous two seasons prior to 2017. Expect this unit to get to opposing QBs and cause more errors.
  • Sam Darnold could get on the field sooner than later, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com speculates. The scribe adds that when the Jets feel he is ready, he will play and he’ll have a chance to prove himself in the preseason. Regardless of who is under center for NY, it’s best to leave this situation along from a fantasy standpoint.

Chiefs New QB Throws Seven INTs in Six Practices

Patrick Mahomes is still learning his craft. The Chiefs brought him in and traded Alex Smith away in part because of his high ceiling, but we’re seeing early in training camp that his floor is much lower than his predecessor.

“He had a few hiccups today,” offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said (via ESPN). “But that’s a part of the process. When you’re young you need those hiccups because they become valuable lessons. … Would we like for him to be perfect? Yes. We’d like for him to have the highest quarterback rating ever. … He just needs to be poised under pressure.”

We shouldn’t make too much of training camp interceptions, but it’s a reminder that Mahomes will be more volatile than the man he’s replacing. The Chiefs are expected to take a slight step back this season and if Mahomes can’t protect the ball, the team won’t be able to overcompensate for its lackluster defense.

Kansas City Chiefs William Hill @ Oceans AC Bovada
Win Total 8 8.5
Over -160 -120
Under +140 -110

Smith, who spent the last five seasons as Kansas City’s starter, threw just five interceptions during the 2017 season and just 33 over his 75 starts with the club. His ability to avoid turnover keep his offense on the field and the team’s defense off of it.

The NBA Becomes First League To Sign Deal With Official Betting Sponsor

The NBA announced today that they have reached an agreement with MGM that will give the gaming company rights to use league highlights, names, logos, and data, as well as market itself as the exclusive partner of the NBA and WNBA.

Commissioner Adam Silver was quick to add during the presser that the only thing exclusive about the deal is the MGM’s ability to say they are the partner of the league. The gaming company will not be the only one getting their highlights, data, etc.

The NBA is widely considered more progressive than most North American leagues, so the news of the partnership comes as no surprise.

Sportsbook Takes Two Bets On Nick Young To Win The NBA Finals MVP

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has taken two bets on Nick Young, according to ESPN’s Ben Fawles. The odds: 5000-1.

Young made the playoffs for only the third time in his 12 year career this year and he hasn’t played exceptionally well this time around.

The shooting guard is sporting a 5.5 player efficiency rating over the 16 games (two starts) in which it took the Warriors to reach the NBA Finals. He scored just 2.9 points per game while making 35.0% of his shots from the field.

It would take an incredible sequence of events for this bet to pay off, but dreamers gonna dream…

« Older Entries Recent Entries »