Live Betting: How To Bet When An NFL Team Takes A Massive Lead
Thursday night’s Raven-Bengals game was the 825th regular season game since 2002 in which a team took at least a 17-point during the first half. Those teams are 756-69 straight up with the Bears losing to Green Bay representing the latest blown attempt.
506 of those 825 teams ended up winning the game by at least 17 points (61.3%), as Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders details. However, many of those squads were expected to win entering the game. 603 (73.1%) of those teams were favored by at least 6 points. The teams that were favored to win ended up doing so by an average of 21.9 points.
The 212 underdogs that got out to a lead of at least 17 points by halftime finished with an average margin of victory of just 11.7 points. 42 of the 69 teams (60.9%) that blew the big lead were underdogs heading into the game.
In all, 70.5% of the favorites who took the at least the 17-point first-half lead went on to win by at least 17 points. Underdogs who got out to that first-half lead only won by at least 17 points 35.4% of the time.
This kind of data is great for live betting, as it was in the Ravens-Bengals tilt. Oddsmakers offered as a high Baltimore (the favorite heading into the game) with as many as 18 points at times on Thursday. The Ravens ended up losing by 11 points.
As always, make sure to take context into consideration before betting.