How NFL Preseason Favorites Have Performed

The Patriots enter the season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl for the third straight year. Last year, bookmakers gave them a 2.5-1 odds, the heaviest favorite since Tom Brady‘s 2007 squad that ultimately went 18-1.

NE Patriots Caesars Entertainment (AC) Delaware Park Bovada
SB Odds +700 +700 +650

Only two preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl have gone on to actually win the big game (06 Colts at +600; 16 Patriots +650). The favorites haven’t faired that poorly, as Greg Gulielmo of FiveThirtyEight notes. Just four of the teams since 2001 missed the playoffs and nine of the favorite/co-favorite the Super Bowl, with seven of the teams losing in the game.

Year Team Odds (+) Implied probability Actual Wins Results
2018 New England 650 13%
2017 New England 250 29% 13 Lost SB
2016 New England 650 13% 14 Won SB
2015 Green Bay 500 17% 10 Lost Div
Seattle 500 17% 10 Lost Div
2014 Seattle 500 17% 12 Lost SB
Denver 500 17% 12 Lost Div
2013 Denver 650 13% 13 Lost SB
San Francisco 650 13% 12 Lost Conf
2012 Green Bay 600 14% 11 Lost Div
2011 New England 600 14% 13 Lost SB
2010 Indianapolis 800 11% 10 Lost WC
2009 New England 500 17% 10 Lost WC
2008 New England 350 22% 11 Missed
2007 New England 250 29% 16 Lost SB
2006 Indianapolis 600 14% 12 Won SB
2005 Indianapolis 500 17% 14 Lost Div
New England 500 17% 10 Lost Div
Philadelphia 500 17% 6 Missed
2004 Philadelphia 500 17% 13 Lost SB
2003 Tampa Bay 800 11% 7 Missed
2002 St. Louis 350 22% 7 Missed
2001 St. Louis 400 20% 14 Lost SB

*Chart has been updated to include New England’s most recent odds

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