AFC Odds & Ends: Win Totals, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cincy Defense

The Chiefs‘ defense isn’t stopping John Ewing of The Action Network from taking the team’s over at an 8.5 win total. The network’s simulations have Kansas City winning at least 9 games 70.7% of the time.

Kansas City Chiefs William Hill @ Oceans AC Bovada
Win Total 8 8.5
Over -160 -120
Under 140 -110

The transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes certainly makes this a riskier bet, as we have a limited sample size on Mahomes in pro action. Another risk is the defense, one that ranked 30th in DVOA last season. Eric Berry will return from a torn Achilles and he’s a difference-maker that can help this unit rank in the top half of the if he’s healthy.

Here are more items to help you make money this football season:

  • The Action Network has the Dolphins going under 6.5 wins in 74.9% of their simulations, Ewing adds in the same piece. Those who are pro-Ryan Tannehill may point to his 8-5 record during the 2016 season where he completed 67.1% of his passes, but it may be best to dismiss those chants. That year, Jarvis Landry, who is now in Cleveland, had 27.5% of the team’s passes come his way. Tannehill will now have Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson to throw to in the slot and it’s hard to feel confident about this offense.
  • DeVante Parker has struggled so far in training camp, writes Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. The Dolphins WR currently has an ADP of 90 in ESPN leagues, sandwiched between Robbie Anderson and Kelvin Benjamin.
  • The Bengals produced only 14 turnovers last season, but they are one of only two teams to rank in the top 10 in pressure rate in each of the last three seasons, according to Football Outsiders’ Almanac. They averaged 24 turnovers over the previous two seasons prior to 2017. Expect this unit to get to opposing QBs and cause more errors.
  • Sam Darnold could get on the field sooner than later, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com speculates. The scribe adds that when the Jets feel he is ready, he will play and he’ll have a chance to prove himself in the preseason. Regardless of who is under center for NY, it’s best to leave this situation along from a fantasy standpoint.

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